The change of administration in the United States, with Donald Trump taking over from Joe Biden on January 20, 2025, will have significant impacts on American and global politics. Rather than predicting exactly what will happen, it is more valuable to analyze some key issues that will be in the spotlight.
1. What will be the priorities of the new president?
Donald Trump begins his term with a significant advantage: the Republican Party controls both Congress and the Senate, a situation that gives him the opportunity to advance an ambitious legislative agenda. However, the room for action is limited by internal party disagreements and budget constraints.
One of the priorities is expected to be extending tax cuts passed during his first term, which expire at the end of 2025. Trump has promised new tax cuts that could cost up to $4 trillion over a decade. He also wants to eliminate limits on the public debt, to provide flexibility in financing his projects.
To cover those costs, however, he could aim to cut spending on clean energy and social policies like Medicaid and public education. These measures could hurt rural areas, which supported Trump strongly in the election. Another source of funding he has proposed is tariffs on China and other countries, but experts argue that these costs will ultimately be paid for by American consumers.
2. Will Trump deliver on his promises on immigration?
Donald Trump has promised a grand plan to deport illegal immigrants, but such an initiative would require huge financial and political resources. It is also likely to face opposition from the public, businesses and the courts. For this reason, it is likely that he will pursue easier-to-implement approaches.
Trump could limit the validity of visas, raise fees, and extend waiting times for immigrants. He could reduce the number of refugees admitted and reinstate the policy that forces asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. Also, eliminating programs that allow controlled migration could drastically change the current system.
However, several factors beyond its control will affect immigration. If the US economy slows, there may be fewer immigrants looking for work. Crises like the one in Venezuela could cause increased migratory flows to the US, creating new challenges.
3. Will the US stop climate efforts?
During his campaign, Trump promised to withdraw the US from international climate agreements and increase reliance on traditional energy sources, such as oil and gas. If these promises are realized, carbon emissions are expected to rise and investment in renewable energy will fall.
But the reality is more complex. Most energy policies are tied to global markets and external factors like international crises and OPEC-set oil prices. Moreover, policies like the Inflation Reduction Act have brought significant benefits to many Republican constituencies, making it difficult for Trump to repeal them without political repercussions.
Although the Biden administration has taken major steps toward energy transition, the US remains the world's leading producer of oil and gas. This duality is expected to continue under the new administration.
4. Will billionaires dominate governance?
Elon Musk and other billionaires are expected to play a significant role in the Trump administration. Musk has used his social media platform to influence public policy, openly opposing decisions such as the federal budget. Meanwhile, Trump has appointed several billionaires to key government positions, increasing their influence in decision-making.
However, this influence has created tensions within the Republican Party and in relations between the White House and Congress. The intervention of billionaires can destabilize institutions and pose risks to domestic and foreign policy.
Beyond the US, billionaires like Musk support radical right-wing movements in various countries, creating a global network with profound influence.
5. Will the world be safer with Trump?
Trump has promised to resolve the crisis in Ukraine and other international conflicts, but his foreign policy has often faced criticism for its contradictory approach. He prefers bilateral agreements and has a declared sympathy for autocrats, which can create tensions on the international stage.
The crisis in Ukraine, Chinese pressure on Taiwan, and Iran's nuclear ambitions will be key tests of his ability to manage foreign policy. Trump is also expected to face unforeseen challenges that could change the global dynamic.
A central issue remains that of nuclear weapons. His policies during his first term, such as his failure to curb North Korea’s nuclear program and his withdrawal from the Iran deal, have created uncertainty about his stance on nuclear threats. As James M. Lindsay has written, maintaining a noncommittal stance while promising tough action against opponents may work in the campaign, but not in government.
